Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
