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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.